Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million in March from an upwardly revised 4.60 million in February, but are 5.2 percent above the 4.26 million-unit pace in March 2011.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the recovery is in the process of settling into a higher level of home sales.  “The recovery is happening though not at a breakout pace, but we have seen nine consecutive months of year-over-year sales increases,” he said.  “Existing-home sales are moving up and down in a fairly narrow range that is well above the level of activity during the first half of last year.  With job growth, low interest rates, bargain home prices and an improving economy, the pent-up demand is coming to market and we expect housing to be notably better this year.”

Total housing inventory at the end of March declined 1.3 percent to 2.37 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.3-month supply at the current sales pace, the same as in February.  Listed inventory is 21.8 percent below a year ago and well below the record of 4.04 million in July 2007.

“We were expecting a seasonal increase in home listings, but a lack of inventory has suddenly become an issue in several markets with not enough homes for sale in relation to buyer interest,” Yun said.  “Home sales could be held back because of supply factors and not by demand – we’re already seeing this in the Western states and in South Florida.”

Existing-Home Sales By Housing Type

Single-family home sales declined 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.97 million in March from 4.07 million in February, but are 5.9 percent above the 3.75 million-unit pace a year ago.  The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in March, up 1.9 percent from March 2011.

Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 in March from 530,000 in February, and are unchanged from March 2011.  The median existing condo price was $165,200 in March, which is 7.1 percent above a year ago.

Existing-Home Sales by Region

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 1.7 percent to an annual level of 580,000 in March but are 5.5 percent higher than a year ago.  The median price in the Northeast was $228,300, down 1.9 percent from March 2011.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest were unchanged in March at a pace of 1.02 million but are 15.9 percent above March 2011.  The median price in the Midwest was $132,800, up 5.2 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales slipped 1.1 percent to an annual level of 1.75 million in March but are 3.6 percent higher than a year ago.  The median price in the South was $146,500, up 6.2 percent from March 2011.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 7.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.13 million in March and are 0.9 percent below March 2011.  The median price in the West was $198,300, up 1.6 percent from a year ago.

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 747,000. This is 4.5 percent above the revised February rate of 715,000 and is 30.1 percent above the March 2011 estimate of 574,000.

Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 462,000; this is 3.5 percent below the revised February figure of 479,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 262,000 in March.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000. This is 5.8 percent below the revised February estimate of 694,000, but is 10.3 percent above the March 2011 rate of 593,000.

Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 462,000; this is 0.2 percent below the revised February figure of 463,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 178,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000. This is 4.2 percent above the revised February estimate of 576,000 and is 0.5 percent above the March 2011 rate of 597,000.

Single-family housing completions in March were at a rate of 440,000; this is 1.4 percent above the revised February rate of 434,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 146,000.

“Although builders in many markets are noting increased interest among potential buyers, consumers are still very hesitant to go forward with a purchase, and our members are realigning their expectations somewhat until they see more actual signed sales contracts,” noted Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla.

“What we’re seeing is essentially a pause in what had been a fairly rapid build-up in builder confidence that started last September,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is partly because interest expressed by buyers in the past few months has yet to translate into expected sales activity, but is also reflective of the ongoing challenges that are slowing the housing recovery – particularly tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, competition from foreclosures and problems with obtaining accurate appraisals.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Each of the index’s components registered declines in April. The component gauging current sales conditions and the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months each fell three points, to 26 and 32, respectively, while the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell four points to 18. (Note, the overall index and each of its components are seasonally adjusted.)

Regionally, the HMI results were somewhat mixed in April, with the Northeast posting a four-point gain to 29 (its highest level since May of 2010), the West posting no change at 32, the South posting a three-point decline to 24 and the Midwest posting an eight-point decline to 23.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, eased 0.5 percent to 96.5 in February from 97.0 in January but is 9.2 percent above February 2011 when it was 88.4. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said we’re seeing the continuation of an uneven but higher sales pattern. “The spring home buying season looks bright because of an elevated level of contract offers so far this year,” he said. “If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years. Based on all of the factors in the current market, that’s what we’re expecting with sales rising 7 to 10 percent in 2012.”

The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.6 percent to 77.7 in February but is 18.4 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 6.5 percent to 93.8 and is 19.0 percent higher than February 2011. Pending home sales in the South fell 3.0 percent to an index of 105.8 in February but are 7.8 percent above a year ago. In the West the index declined 2.6 percent in February to 99.3 and is 1.8 percent below February 2011.

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000. This is 5.1 percent  above the revised January rate of 682,000 and is 34.3 percent  above the February 2011 estimate of 534,000.

Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 472,000; this is 4.9 percent  above the revised January figure of 450,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 219,000 in February.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000. This is 1.1 percent  below the revised January estimate of 706,000, but is 34.7 percent  above the February 2011 rate of 518,000.

Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 457,000; this is 9.9 percent  below the revised January figure of 507,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 233,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 568,000. This is 6.2 percent  above the revised January estimate of 535,000, but is 7.0 percent  below the February 2011 rate of 611,000.

Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 421,000; this is 8.2 percent  above the revised January rate of 389,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 144,000.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index rose to a record high 206.1 in January, based on the relationship between median home price, median family income and average mortgage interest rate. The higher the index, the greater the household purchasing power.

An index of 100 is defined as the point where a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home, assuming a 20 percent downpayment and 25 percent of gross income devoted to mortgage principal and interest payments. For first-time buyers making small downpayments, the affordability levels are relatively lower.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said this latest data underscores buyer opportunities in today’s market. “This is the first time the housing affordability index has broken the two hundred mark, meaning the typical family has roughly double the income needed to purchase a median-priced home,” he said. “For buyers who can qualify for a mortgage, now is a very good time to become a homeowner.”

NAR projects the affordability index for all of 2012 will be at an annual high, with little movement in mortgage interest rates or home prices during the year. “Housing inventory levels have declined to a point where conditions are becoming much more balanced in much of the country,” Veissi said. “If access to credit improves, we could see a much more meaningful increase in home sales and broader stabilization in home prices with modest gains in areas with stronger job growth.”

In addition to both Composites, 18 of the 20 MSAs saw monthly declines in December over November. Miami and Phoenix were up 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. At -12.8% Atlanta continued to post the lowest annual return. Detroit was the only city to post a positive annual return, +0.5% in December versus the same month in 2010. In addition to the three composites, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa each saw average home prices hit new lows.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.0% decline in the fourth quarter of 2011 over the fourth quarter of 2010. In December, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 3.9% and 4.0%, respectively.

“In terms of prices, the housing market ended 2011 on a very disappointing note,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “With this month’s report we saw all three composite hit new record lows. While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended.

“After a prior three years of accelerated decline, the past two years has been a story of a housing market that is bottoming out but has not yet stabilized. Up until today’s report we had believed the crisis lows for the composites were behind us, with the 10-City Composite originally hitting a low in April 2009 and the 20- City Composite in March 2011. Now it looks like neither was the case, as both hit new record lows in December 2011. The National Composite fell by 3.8% in the fourth quarter alone, and is down 33.8% from its 2nd quarter 2006 peak. It also recorded a new record low.

“In general, most of the regions also posted weak data in December. Eighteen of the cities saw average home prices fall in December over November. Seventeen of the cities have seen monthly declines for at least three consecutive months. In addition to both monthly composites, 10 of the cities saw home prices fall by more than 1.0% during the month of December. The pick-up in the economy has simply not been strong enough to keep home prices stabilized. If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012.”

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.0 percent to 97.0 in January from a downwardly revised 95.1 in December and is 8.0 percent higher than January 2011 when it was 89.8. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

The January index is the highest since April 2010 when it reached 111.3 as buyers were rushing to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said this is a hopeful indicator going into the spring home-buying season. “Given more favorable housing market conditions, the trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year. With a sustained downtrend in unsold inventory, this would bring about a broad price stabilization or even modest national price growth, of course with local variations.”

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 7.6 percent to 78.2 in January and is 9.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 3.8 percent to 88.1 but is 10.8 percent higher than January 2011. Pending home sales in the South increased 7.7 percent to an index of 109.1 in January and are 10.5 percent above a year ago. In the West the index fell 4.4 percent in January to 101.9 but is 0.7 percent above January 2011.

“Movements in the index have been uneven, reflecting the headwinds of tight credit, but job gains, high affordability and rising rents are hopefully pushing the market into what appears to be a sustained housing recovery,” Yun said. “If and when credit availability conditions return to normal, home sales will likely get a 15 percent boost, speed up the home-price recovery, and thereby significantly reduce the number of homeowners who are underwater.”

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said vacancy rates are improving in all of the major commercial real estate sectors. “Sustained job creation is benefiting commercial real estate sectors by increasing demand for space,” he said. “Vacancy rates are steadily falling. Leasing is on the rise and rents are showing signs of strengthening, especially in the apartment market where rents are rising the fastest.”

NAR forecasts commercial vacancy rates over the next year to decline 0.4 percentage point in the office sector, 0.8 point in industrial real estate, 0.9 point in the retail sector and 0.2 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.

“Household formation appears to be rising from pent-up demand,” Yun said. “The tight apartment market should encourage more apartment construction. Otherwise, rent increases could further accelerate in the near-to-intermediate term.”

NAR’s latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc., a source of commercial real estate performance information.

Office Markets

Vacancy rates in the office sector are projected to fall from 16.4 percent in the current quarter to 16.0 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.5 percent; New York City, at 10.0 percent; and New Orleans, 12.4 percent.

After rising 1.6 percent in 2011, office rents should increase another 1.9 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2013. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is forecast at 20.1 million square feet in 2012 and 28.1 million next year.

Industrial Markets

Industrial vacancy rates are likely to decline from 11.7 percent in the first quarter of this year to 10.9 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Orange County, Calif., with a vacancy rate of 4.8 percent; Los Angeles, 4.9 percent; and Miami at 7.6 percent.

Annual industrial rent is expected to rise 1.8 percent in 2012 and 2.3 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space nationally is seen at 40.6 million square feet this year and 57.7 million in 2013.

Retail Markets

Retail vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 11.9 percent in the current quarter to 11.0 percent in the first quarter of 2013.

Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.6 percent; Fairfield County, Conn., at 5.1 percent; and Long Island, N.Y., at 5.4 percent.

Average retail rent should rise 0.7 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2013. Net absorption of retail space is projected at 9.9 million square feet this year and 23.9 million in 2013.

Multifamily Markets

The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is likely to see vacancy rates drop from 4.7 percent in the first quarter to 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013; multifamily vacancy rates below 5 percent generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.

Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are New York City, 1.8 percent; Minneapolis and Portland, Ore., each at 2.5 percent; and San Jose, Calif., at 2.7 percent.

After rising 2.2 percent last year, average apartment rent is expected to increase 3.8 percent in 2012 and another 4.0 percent next year. Multifamily net absorption is forecast at 209,900 units this year and 223,600 in 2013.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2012 was $217,100; the average sales price was $261,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 151,000. This represents a supply of 5.6 months at the current sales rate.