National Home Prices Decline Slightly in November
Jan - 31 |
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Data through November 2011, released by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed declines of 1.3% for both the 10- and 20-City Composites in November over October. For a second consecutive month, 19 of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of -3.6% and -3.7% versus November 2010, respectively. These are worse than the -3.2% and -3.4% respective rates reported for October. In addition to both Composites, 13 of the 20 MSAs saw their annual returns decrease compared to October’s data. New York and Tampa saw no change in annual returns in November; while Charlotte, Cleveland, Denver, Minneapolis and Phoenix saw their annual rates improve. At -11.8% Atlanta continued to post the lowest annual return. Detroit and Washington DC were the only two cities to post positive annual returns of +3.8% and +0.5%, respectively, in November. While positive, both cities saw these annual rates fall versus October’s data.

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. In November 2011, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.6% and -3.7%, respectively. Both Composites and 13 MSAs – Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington DC – saw their annual rates
“Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative. Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.
“The crisis low for the 10-City Composite was April 2009; for the 20-City Composite the more recent low was March 2011. The 10-City Composite is now about 1.0% above its low, and the 20-City Composite is only 0.6% above its low. From their 2006 peaks, both Composites are down close to 33% through November.
“Atlanta continues to stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. It was down 2.5% over the month, after having fallen by 5.0% in October, 5.9% in September and 2.4% in August. It also posted the weakest annual return, down 11.8%. In addition, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa all reached new lows in November.”
New Home Sales Decline 2.2%
Jan - 27 |
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Sales of new single-family houses in December 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.2 percent below the revised November rate of 314,000 and is 7.3 percent below the December 2010 estimate of 331,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2011 was $210,300; the average sales price was $266,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 157,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate.
An estimated 302,000 new homes were sold in 2011. This is 6.2 percent below the 2010 figure of 323,000.
Homeownership Matters to State of the Union
Jan - 25 |
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The following is a statement by National Association of Realtors® President Moe Veissi:
“The National Association of Realtors® commends President Obama for his remarks in support of homeowners and the struggling housing market during tonight’s State of the Union address. As leading advocates for homeownership, Realtors® know that restoring the health of the housing market is the only way to achieve a broader economic recovery.
“Realtors® stand ready to help Congress and the administration implement Obama’s proposal to significantly reduce monthly mortgage payments by streamlining the refinancing process.
But beyond that, we must make housing a national public policy priority. Realtors® believe that more must be done to stem the rising inventory of foreclosed homes and address the lack of available and affordable mortgage financing, which is inhibiting a meaningful housing market recovery.
“Our families, communities, the housing market and economy all suffer when people lose their home to foreclosure. Realtors® are calling upon the Obama administration, Congress and lenders to help keep more people in their homes by taking more aggressive steps to modify loans and help homeowners significantly reduce their monthly mortgage payments.
“Realtors® also urge the government and lenders to streamline the often time-consuming and inefficient short sales process and to quickly approve reasonable offers when a family is absolutely unable keep their home. Keeping people in their homes and reducing foreclosures will help minimize the negative impact of distressed properties on home values and neighborhoods.
“Expanding financing opportunities could also help reduce excess inventories of distressed properties. Increased fees and higher down payments are making it harder for many creditworthy homebuyers and investors to obtain financing, thwarting the sale of distressed properties and prolonging the impact those homes have on local markets.”
“While we are beginning to see early signs of stabilization in the housing market, NAR calls on Congress and the Obama administration to come together and make housing a priority issue. In this vein, we urge the White House to host a national housing summit to encourage a broad discussion among stakeholders to help formulate and advance policies that move the country toward a real housing and economic recovery.”
Pending Home Sales Fall 3.5% in December
Jan - 25 |
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After reaching a 19-month high, pending home sales eased in December but stayed above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 3.5 percent to 96.6 in December from 100.1 in November but is 5.6 percent above December 2010 when it was 91.5. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the trend line remains positive. “Even with a modest decline, the preceding two months of contract activity are the highest in the past four years outside of the homebuyer tax credit period,” he said. “Contract failures remain an issue, reported by one-third of Realtors® over the past few months, but home buyers are not giving up.”
Yun said some buyers successfully complete the sale after a contract delay, while others stay in the market after a contract failure and make another offer. “Housing affordability conditions are too good to pass up,” he said. “Our hope is lending conditions will gradually improve with sustained increases in closed existing-home sales.”
The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.1 percent to 74.7 in December and is 0.8 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 4.0 percent to 95.3 and is 13.3 percent higher than December 2010. Pending home sales in the South slipped 2.6 percent to an index of 101.1 in December but are 4.9 percent above a year ago. In the West the index fell 11.0 percent in December to 107.9 but is 3.7 percent higher than December 2010.
Existing-Home Sales Up 5.0%
Jan - 25 |
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Existing-home sales continued on an uptrend in December, rising for three consecutive months and remaining above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.39 million in November, and are 3.6 percent higher than the 4.45 million-unit level in December 2010. The estimates are based on completed transactions from multiple listing services that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. “The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,” he said. “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.”
For all of 2011, existing-home sales rose 1.7 percent to 4.26 million from 4.19 million in 2010.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to another record low of 3.96 percent in December from 3.99 percent in November; the rate was 4.71 percent in December 2010; recordkeeping began in 1971.
NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said more buyers are expected to take advantage of market conditions this year. “The American dream of homeownership is alive and well. We have a large pent-up demand, and household formation is likely to return to normal as the job market steadily improves,” he said. “More buyers coming into the market mean additional benefits for the overall economy. When people buy homes, they stimulate a lot of related goods and services.”
Existing-Home Sales by Housing Type
Single-family home sales increased 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million in December from 3.93 million in November, and are 4.3 percent higher than the 3.94 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $165,100 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010.
Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 8.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 500,000 in December from 460,000 in November but are 2.0 percent below the 510,000-unit level in December 2010. The median existing condo price was $160,000 in December, down 3.0 percent from a year ago.
Existing-Home Sales by Region
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 10.7 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in December and are 3.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $231,300, which is 2.7 percent below December 2010.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 8.3 percent in December to a level of 1.04 million and are 9.5 percent above December 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $129,100, down 7.9 percent from a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.9 percent to an annual level of 1.76 million in December and are 3.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $146,900, down 1.1 percent from December 2010.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 2.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in December but are 0.8 percent below December 2010. The median price in the West was $205,200, up 0.3 percent from a year ago.
Florida’s Housing Sales Activity Higher as 2011 Ends
Jan - 25 |
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At the close of 2011, Florida’s existing home and condominium markets reported higher sales compared to the previous year, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. It was the third consecutive year for statewide home and condo sales activity to end the year on a positive upswing – higher year-over-year sales also were reported at the close of 2010 and 2009, records show.
Looking back on 2011, Florida’s existing home sales rose 8 percent for the year, with a total of 185,921 homes sold compared to 172,462 homes sold in 2010. The statewide existing home median price for 2011 was $131,700; it was $135,900 in 2010 for a 3 percent decrease. In Florida’s condo market, a total of 87,581 units sold statewide in 2011, a gain of 15 percent compared to 76,209 units sold in 2010. The statewide existing condo median price in 2011 was $88,300; it was $90,000 in 2010 for a 2 percent decrease.
Sixteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported higher existing home sales at the close of 2011 compared to 2010; the same number of MSAs also reported higher existing condos sales.
“Florida’s economy is continuing to strengthen, which is good news,” said 2012 Florida Realtors President Summer Greene, regional manager of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Florida 1st in Fort Lauderdale. “Many people are hoping to take advantage of the current record low mortgage rates and affordable conditions to find their Florida dream home – but overly restrictive lending requirements continue to create barriers to homeownership for qualified homebuyers. To re-energize the housing market and the economic recovery, we need improved access to affordable financing options for qualified buyers and investors.”
In December, a total of 15,290 existing single-family homes sold statewide, a decrease of 2 percent from the 15,546 homes sold in December 2010. The statewide existing home median sales price last month was $134,300, up 1 percent from the $133,000 reported in December 2010, according to Florida Realtors’ data. The national median existing single-family home price was $165,100 in December, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
In the year-to-year comparison for statewide existing condo sales, a total of 6,836 units changed hands last month, compared to 6,985 condos sold in December 2010 for a decrease of 2 percent. The statewide existing condo median sales price in December was $91,900, up 4 percent from the $88,400 reported a year earlier. The national median existing condo price was $160,000 in December, according to NAR.
“Although sales were down slightly in December, they’re up strongly for the year, which reinforces the reality that Florida is in a slow real estate recovery,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo. “Our expectation is that recovery will continue through 2012. The major obstacle in the market is the inadequate accessibility to financing. Prices are moderating, but we don’t expect too much movement owing to the continuing significance of distressed properties.”
In December, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.96 percent, down from the 4.71 percent average during the same month a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The annual average rate for a 30-year mortgage in 2011 was 4.45 percent. Florida Realtors’ sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
Housing Starts for December
Jan - 25 |
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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced new residential construction statistics for December 2011.
BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. This is 0.1 percent below the revised November rate of 680,000, but is 7.8 percent above the December 2010 estimate of 630,000.
Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 444,000; this is 1.8 percent above the revised November figure of 436,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 209,000 in December. An estimated 611,900 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2011. This is 1.2 percent above the 2010 figure of 604,600.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000. This is 4.1 percent below the revised November estimate of 685,000, but is 24.9 percent above the December 2010 rate of 526,000.
Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 470,000; this is 4.4 percent above the revised November figure of 450,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 164,000. An estimated 606,900 housing units were started in 2011. This is 3.4 percent above the 2010 figure of 586,900.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 605,000. This is 9.2 percent above the revised November estimate of 554,000 and is 7.1 percent above the December 2010 rate of 565,000.
Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 448,000; this is 0.9 percent below the revised November rate of 452,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 147,000. An estimated 583,900 housing units were completed in 2011. This is 10.4 percent below the 2010 figure of 651,700.
Builder Confidence Continues to Increase
Jan - 25 |
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Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes continued to climb for a fourth consecutive month in January, rising four points to 25 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This is the highest level the index has attained since June of 2007.
“Builder confidence has now risen four months in a row, with the latest uptick being universally represented across every index component and region,” noted Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “This good news comes on the heels of several months of gains in single-family housing starts and sales, and is yet another indication of the gradual but steady improvement that is beginning to take hold in an increasing number of housing markets nationwide — and that has been shown by our Improving Markets Index. Policymakers must now take every precaution to avoid derailing this nascent recovery.”
“Builders are seeing greater interest among potential buyers as employment and consumer confidence slowly improve in a growing number of markets, and this has helped to move the confidence gauge up from near-historic lows in the first half of 2011,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “That said, caution remains the word of the day as many builders continue to voice concerns about potential clients being unable to qualify for an affordable mortgage, appraisals coming through below construction cost, and the continuing flow of foreclosed properties hitting the market.”
Foreclosures Fall in 2011
Jan - 25 |
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The year end 2011 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report released by RealtyTrac showed a decreased in foreclosure filings, default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions by 34% from 2010.
One in 69 housing units had a foreclosure filing during 2011, which is down 2.23 percent from 2010. More than 4 million homes have been lost to foreclosure over the past five years.
“Foreclosures were in full delay mode in 2011, resulting in a dramatic drop in foreclosure activity for the year,” said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “The lack of clarity regarding many of the documentation and legal issues plaguing the foreclosure industry means that we are continuing to see a highly dysfunctional foreclosure process that is inefficiently dealing with delinquent mortgages — particularly in states with a judicial foreclosure process.
“There were strong signs in the second half of 2011 that lenders are finally beginning to push through some of the delayed foreclosures in select local markets. We expect that trend to continue this year, boosting foreclosure activity for 2012 higher than it was in 2011, though still below the peak of 2010.”
For more information, view 2011 Year-End Foreclosure Report: Foreclosures on the Retreat
Pending Home Sales Up for November
Jan - 25 |
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Pending home sales continued to gain in November and reached the highest level in 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 7.3 percent to 100.1 in November from an upwardly revised 93.3 in October and is 5.9 percent above November 2010 when it stood at 94.5. The October upward revision resulted in a 10.4 percent monthly gain.
The last time the index was higher was in April 2010 when it reached 111.5 as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gains may result partially from delayed transactions. “Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines, but contract failures have been running unusually high. Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage,” he said.
“November is doing reasonably well in comparison with the past year. The sustained rise in contract activity suggests that closed existing-home sales, which are the important final economic impact figures, should continue to improve in the months ahead,” Yun added.
Pending home sales are not affected by the recently published rebenchmarking of existing-home sales because the index uses a different methodology based directly on contract signings, and is adjusted for seasonality.
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 8.1 percent to 77.1 in November but is 0.3 percent below November 2010. In the Midwest the index increased 3.3 percent to 91.6 in November and is 9.5 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 4.3 percent in November to an index of 103.8 and remain 8.7 percent above November 2010. In the West the index surged 14.9 percent to 121.2 in November and is 2.9 percent higher than a year ago.


